2016 Archives - Buetow & Spitzley Wealth Management

November 15, 2016 By John Buetow

STOCKS SOAR WHEN REPUBLICANS CONTROL IT ALL

This is not intended to be a commentary on the results of the recent Presidential election. Irrespective of how the election turned out, 50% of Americans were going to be very happy and the other 50% were going to be bitterly disappointed.

Conventional wisdom tells us that the stock market does best when the three branches of government are shared by both Republicans and Democrats. Not so fast! In two more months, the Republicans will control not just the Presidency, but also the House and Senate. Going back to 1950, this “trifecta” has occurred just twice, once from 1953-1954 and again from 2003-2006. In the first instance, the stock market was up 35.80% and the second time it was up 61.20%.*

Many investors today are filled with panic because of the uncertainty of a Trump presidency. History tells us not to worry so much.

*Daily Wealth Premium. November 10, 2016

These are the opinions of Dr. Steve Sjuggerud and not necessarily those of John Buetow or Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice.

October 17, 2016 By John Buetow

THE END OF NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES?

Prior to getting into this commentary, a quick reminder that bond prices move in the opposite direction of interest rates. With interest rates generally declining since the 1980’s, bond prices have enjoyed a bull market for the past 30+ years. According to Jeffrey Gundlach, aka the “Bond God”, we may be seeing the 30 year bull market in bond prices coming to an end. This is certainly a contrarian viewpoint, but often when everybody says something can’t happen (such as interest rates going up), that’s exactly when it happens*.

Irrespective of whoever wins the November election, both Mr. Trump and Ms. Clinton have promised massive infrastructure programs which would require massive Government spending, which would then require more Government borrowing, which would then require the Government to sell more Treasury Bonds, which should push down bond rises and raise interest rates*.

You should be asking this question: Isn’t this exactly what the Fed has been doing for the past eight years? The answer of course is yes. The follow up question becomes: How is this going to be any different? Gundlach predicts that central banks, i.e. the Fed, will be forced to raise interest rates to avoid a total collapse of the global banking system*.

Is Gundlach right? Maybe, maybe not. If he is right, our strategy is to buy short maturity (1-2) year CD’s and “ladder” your portfolio up as interest rates go up. Our portfolios hold ample Cash and are liquid enough to allow us to use the “CD ladder” strategy.

Further evidence that Gundlach may be right is that we have seen the yield on the 7-10 year Treasury (IEF) and the 20+ year Treasury (TLT) both rise over the past several weeks, resulting in a corresponding drop in the share prices of both securities.

* The Stansberry Digest. October 10, 2016

These are the opinions of Jeffrey Gundlach and Justin Brill and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice.

September 26, 2016 By John Buetow

Keep Your Eye On The 10 Year Treasury

Gold has had a great year so far: Thru August 22, 2016, it is up 24%*. Compare that to the Dow Jones which is 8% year to date**. That’s all wonderful, but where does Gold go from here? A good indicator is the US 10 Year Treasury. This is the benchmark for interest rates around the world. The current rate for the 10 Year Treasury is just 1.58%. Subtract the inflation rate of 1.00% from that normal rate and you are left with a real interest rate of just 0.58%. When interest rates are low, as they have been, investors are more likely to pour into Gold (and Silver) helping to drive the price of the precious metals up. Conversely, when rate are going up, investors (and guys like me) will chase the upward rates, resulting in most likely lower precious metals prices***.

* APMEX website
** Historical quotes
*** Daily Wealth Trader. August 16, 2016

These are the opinions of Ben Morris and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice.

September 14, 2016 By John Buetow

The Worst Month For The Stock Market?

Over the past 20, 50, and 100 year periods, September is the only month of the year in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed lower. Over the past 100 years, the DJIA has averaged a decline of 0.96%.

It certainly is possible that the market could move higher this month. However, in addition to the historical data, we have several other factors in place which would suggest a market pullback*:

Stocks continue to get more expensive.
Corporate earnings have declined for five straight quarters.
Insiders have been selling.

Generally, we consider a pullback a 5-10% off a security’s 52 week high as a buying opportunity.

* The Stansberry Digest, September 1, 2016

These are the opinions of Justin Brill and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as individualized investment advice.